Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.083225 2.194376 2.313583 2.451930 2.609391 2.784695 2.997069
2025-05-04 1.954682 2.097389 2.256981 2.451377 2.685765 2.964992 3.332565
2025-05-11 1.866880 2.029169 2.216147 2.452235 2.750007 3.125260 3.657494
2025-05-18 1.773808 1.944278 2.144590 2.403784 2.741285 3.184723 3.851927
2025-05-25 1.715117 1.894601 2.109422 2.393981 2.776340 3.300702 4.142108
2025-06-01 1.663178 1.848974 2.074769 2.379856 2.801177 3.401817 4.427127
2025-06-08 1.616406 1.806599 2.040735 2.362539 2.817798 3.490208 4.708786
2025-06-15 1.590636 1.788587 2.035886 2.382598 2.887414 3.666409 5.194215
2025-06-22 1.531784 1.726016 1.969913 2.314256 2.820824 3.615260 5.221910
2025-06-29 1.503352 1.701039 1.951828 2.310936 2.850519 3.725910 5.619693
2025-07-06 1.460940 1.656457 1.905755 2.265268 2.811317 3.713016 5.737127
2025-07-13 1.445174 1.645714 1.904189 2.282643 2.871122 3.882127 6.359267
2025-07-20 1.440580 1.650312 1.924703 2.335170 2.995522 4.200221 7.623641
2025-07-27 1.418751 1.631163 1.911590 2.336673 3.035428 4.361952 8.574298
2025-08-03 1.398395 1.613164 1.899125 2.338074 3.074835 4.530574 9.767384
2025-08-10 1.364797 1.576321 1.858832 2.294485 3.031401 4.509788 10.110276
2025-08-17 1.344120 1.556331 1.841575 2.285673 3.049210 4.631994 11.397303
2025-08-24 1.323388 1.535638 1.822514 2.272901 3.058502 4.736345 12.853482
2025-08-31 1.302871 1.514665 1.802305 2.257214 3.060933 4.824813 14.520739
2025-09-07 1.293600 1.508753 1.803398 2.275392 3.128496 5.096917 19.533754
2025-09-14 1.261287 1.470341 1.756268 2.213396 3.036718 4.921428 18.049716
2025-09-21 1.247395 1.457130 1.745515 2.210379 3.060136 5.071924 22.894330
2025-09-28 1.222996 1.428863 1.712049 2.168836 3.004829 4.989528 22.975976